Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario

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Conducted in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA), the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto has released a study on the Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario. The study projects the future burden of illness in Ontario and highlights the impact on the provincial health care system. To date, it’s the most comprehensive public report focused on quantifying chronic disease and multimorbidity in the Ontario population. 

The study shows an unprecedented strain on Ontario’s health care system, with additional pressures from a growing and aging population. Ontarians will be living longer with chronic disease and there are rising rates of illness across all age groups. ​By 2040, approximately 3.1 million people are expected to be living with major illness  - up from 1.8 million in 2020. In addition, one in four adults over the age of 30 will be living with a major illness in 2040, requiring significant hospital care, up from approximately one in eight individuals in 2002. 

The findings of the report have crucial implications for Ontario’s health system. This growing burden of illness will strain the system significantly in the next two decades as more Ontarians will live with chronic diseases. Ontario is at a turning point – we cannot maintain the status quo. Without significant changes and new approaches, our health system will not be able to cope. ​​

In September 2024, the Globe and Mail published an op-ed by Anthony Dale, President and CEO of the OHA, regarding the need for an "innovation revolution" in Ontario to meet the needs of a growing and aging population. This op-ed also includes a discussion on the potential for innovation and technology to transform the way care is d​elivered in the future.